Chinese researchers develop a simple model to stratify lung cancer risk in non-smoking women

About 53% of lung cancers in women worldwide are not attributable to smoking, and a new model presented today at the IASLC World Conference on Lung Cancer may allow clinicians to assess and stratify lung cancer risk among non-smoking women in China.

Lanwei Guo, Henan Cancer Hospital, China, reviewed data of 151,834 patients from Henan Province, China, from October 2013 to October 2019 from the China Urban Cancer Screening Program (CanSPUC).

The objective was to develop and validate a simple, non-invasive model that could assess and stratify the risk of lung cancer among non-smoking women in China.

Patients were randomly assigned to training (75,917) and validation (75,917) sets. Advanced age, history of chronic respiratory disease, family history of first-degree lung cancer, menopause, and history of benign breast disease were the independent risk factors for lung cancer.

Using these five variables, Dr. Guo and his colleagues constructed one-year, three-year, and five-year lung cancer risk prediction nomograms. The area under the curve was 0.762, 0.718, and 0.703 for lung cancer risk at one, three, and five years in the training set, respectively. In the validation set, the model showed good predictive discrimination, with the area under the curve being 0.646, 0.658, and 0.650 for lung cancer risk at one, three, and five years.

Associated risk factors were identified by multivariate Cox regression analysis, followed by establishment of a risk prediction nomogram. Discrimination [area under the curve (AUC)] and calibration were then performed to assess the validation of the risk prediction nomogram in the training set and then validated by the validation set.

We have developed and validated a simple, non-invasive model of lung cancer risk in non-smoking women that can be applied to identify and triage patients at high risk of developing lung cancer in non-smoking women. »

Dr. Lanwei Guo, Henan Cancer Hospital, China


International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer